The twelve indicators with the best record of signalling where the US economy is heading. Leading indicators turn first, labor and growth confirm, and inflation and policy set the backdrop.
Values on this page are illustrative placeholders, not live data.
A composite reading of the yield curve, credit spreads, jobless claims and the Sahm rule. Above 50% has preceded every recession since 1970 in back-tests of models like this one.
Each indicator is scored against its own historical recession thresholds.
The single most reliable recession predictor. An inversion (below zero) has preceded each of the last eight US recessions, typically by 6 to 18 months.